Iraq Study Group Report - Assessment

The Iraq Study Group Report (ISGR) begins with an assessment of the current situation in Iraq under four categories: security, politics, economics and international support.

The security situation can be described as chaotic and out of control. In the report's words: Attacks are persistent and growing. Violence is increasing in scope, complexity and lethality from mulitple sources within a deadly cycle of attacks and reprisals. Criminality makes daily life unbearable. Organized criminal rackets thrive. Four of 18 provinces are highly insecure. Most cities are plagued by persistent sectarian violence.

U.S. and Coalition forces, the Iraqi army, the Iraqi police, and armed Iraqi ministry units are involved to counter the insurgents (Sunnis), al Qaeda and affiliated jihadists, sectarian militias, and criminals. The army lacks leadership, equipment, and personnel and depends on the U.S. for logistics and support. The Iraqi police are substantially worse than the army with neither training nor authority for criminal investigations. Iraqi ministry police are incompetent, dysfunctional or subversive and a source of funding for the Mahdi army, a Shia militia. Because none of the counter efforts are fundamentally changing the violent conditions, U.S. forces are seemingly in a mission with no forseeable end.

Within the milieu of rampant insecurity, politics can be summed up in several words: sectarian, inaction, corruption, ineffectiveness, inadequacy and weakness. The politics frustrates governance.

Economic progress is stifled by a shocked and dysfunctional economy. Many leading economic indicators are negative with no tangible improvements in the daily situation of Iraqis.

International support for Iraqi reconstruction is only luke warm. Debt forgiveness is needed, but not enough has occurred. Neighboring states are under-cutting its stability and meddling in its affairs. Most of the region is wary of U.S. efforts to promote democracy in Iraq and the Middle East.

Despite these dire conditions, the ISGR does not say the situation is hopeles. The ISG does however judge the Iraq situation by its conformance to U.S. standards and aspirations, which are not necessarily shared by Iraqis. You'll just have to read the report and decide for yourself if their can be redemption for Iraq.

Tomorrow, the balance of the assessment.